Victorian Auditor-General Report
28 November 2012 
Student Completion Rates
Audit summary
Educational attainment is an important predictor of a citizen's future health, employment and welfare prospects—and it improves their ability to contribute socially and economically in the community. 
In Victoria, all eligible people up to the age of 19 are entitled to a government‑funded education, and those who are aged between 15 and 19 years are also entitled to a government-subsidised training place if they are not enrolled at school. 
This audit reviewed whether the support provided to students to complete their schooling to Year 12 or equivalent was effective. It also reviewed whether strategies, programs and initiatives developed and implemented by the Department of Education and Early Childhood Development (DEECD) have increased the number of 19‑year‑olds completing a Year 12 or equivalent certificate. 
Conclusions
DEECD has failed to significantly improve student completion rates in the past 10 years. It did not meet the government's Growing Victoria Together target and is unlikely to meet completion rate targets set through the National Partnership on Youth Attainment and Transitions. Victoria's completion rates have not improved since 2008.
DEECD did not provide comprehensive evidence-based information to 
decision-makers to inform recent funding changes to the Victorian Certificate of Applied Learning (VCAL) and Vocational Education and Training in Schools (VETiS) programs. Important commissioned research was ignored, and stakeholders, including schools, were not consulted about the likely impact of the changes. DEECD did not have sufficient evidence to assess the impact of funding changes on schools' ability to meet the growing demand for VCAL, and, in turn, on the impact that this would have on future completion rates.
Although some schools may be able to absorb the costs of the recent policy changes, DEECD has not consulted widely enough or appropriately modelled the impact of these changes to conclude this definitively. There is a risk that VCAL course offerings will become restricted in the future. 
The issues highlighted in this audit relating to DEECD’s advice on VCAL raise broader concerns about its ability to gather and use sufficient evidence to assess the potential impact of policy changes and provide comprehensive, informed advice to decision‑makers to improve student completion rates.
DEECD has a range of strategies for schools to assist students to complete Year 12 or equivalent. However, these are no longer improving student completion rates. Further, these strategies have never substantially improved completion rates for students from non-metropolitan and low socio-economic status areas, who have lower completion rates than the Victorian average. 
There is no systematic or coordinated strategy around the program and curriculum offerings, and program implementation across schools varies considerably. 
DEECD does not collect data that could be used to analyse outcomes of current practices and model the impact of changes to the system. Without data to analyse what works and why, DEECD cannot make this information available to schools to facilitate their making more informed choices about which programs to implement or cease. 
Findings
Completion rates
In 2005, the Growing Victoria Together framework set a target that by 2010, 90 per cent of 20- to 24-year-old students would have completed Year 12 or equivalent. In 2010, 88.1 per cent of students had completed Year 12 or equivalent. 
It is unlikely that Victoria will meet the completion rate target of 89.35 per cent by 2012, set by the National Partnership on Youth Attainment and Transitions.
The proportion of 19-year-olds completing Year 12 or equivalent in Victoria plateaued at around 80 per cent in 2008 and has not improved since.
Students in non-metropolitan schools and students from a low socio-economic background have a lower Year 12 or equivalent completion rate than the Victorian average. The completion rate for non-metropolitan students has deteriorated since 2006 and the gap between metropolitan and non-metropolitan schools is growing. The completion rate for low and medium socio-economic status students has also been decreasing over this time and the gap is widening in comparison to high 
socio-economic status students. 
Strategies to improve student completion rates
There are four program categories to assist disadvantaged and vulnerable students to remain at school and complete Year 12 or equivalent. 
The programs generally target the same cohort of at-risk students, but vary in relation to how the programs are delivered in individual schools. 
Schools judge some programs as valuable in engaging at-risk students. However, programs do not have clearly identifiable goals or measures to allow program effectiveness to be measured or compared. DEECD does not monitor or evaluate programs to analyse how—or whether—they have supported students to remain engaged at school. There is, therefore, no evidence that these programs are positively impacting on completion rates. 
DEECD does not coordinate programs, advise schools about which programs would work best in particular circumstances, or tell them what outcomes are likely for students. Without this information and guidance, schools cannot make informed decisions about which curriculum and program offerings will best suit the needs of their communities.
Victorian Certificate of Applied Learning
The uptake of VCAL has risen steadily since it was introduced in 2002, and an increasing number of young people are completing a VCAL certificate at an intermediate and senior level. 
In 2011, 13 858 government school students were enrolled in VCAL, an increase of 60 per cent since 2006. In 2010, 87 per cent of intermediate or senior VCAL students entered the workforce or went into training or further education. However, VCAL has not improved Victoria's completion rates or retention rates.
As a proportion, more students with identifiable and measurable risk factors related to completing school—such as low socio-economic status and low academic achievement—undertake VCAL as a senior secondary qualification. 
There have been significant funding changes to VCAL and VETiS in recent times, which potentially reduce VCAL as a viable option for schools and students to attain a secondary school certificate. Because DEECD is not well informed on the likely consequences of these changes, it cannot anticipate their impact on VCAL and VET (a compulsory component of intermediate and senior VCAL). DEECD has failed to provided comprehensive, evidence-based advice to decision-makers on this critical issue.
Recommendations
Number	Recommendation	Page	
	The Department of Education and Early Childhood Development should:		
1.	develop specific strategies to increase retention and completion rates for non-metropolitan students and students from low socio-economic status backgrounds	20	
2.	develop a framework to oversee the provision of support to students at risk of disengaging, or who are disengaged from education, to assist them to complete Year 12 or equivalent	29	
3. 	analyse the impact of programs to determine which strategies have been effective, and why, in order to facilitate schools to use them more effectively	29	
4.	improve data collection and analysis around how effective the department is in supporting schools to assist disengaged students and those at-risk of disengaging to remain at school and complete Year 12 or equivalent	29	
5	develop fit-for-purpose outcome measures to recognise and manage risk in relation to Victoria's Year 12 and equivalent completion rates.	38	
6	use sufficient evidence to analyse the impact of policy changes so that decision-makers are comprehensively informed and advised.	38	
Submissions and comments received
In addition to progressive engagement during the course of the audit, in accordance with section 16(3) of the Audit Act 1994 a copy of this report was provided to the Department of Education and Early Childhood Development with a request for submissions or comments.
Agency views have been considered in reaching our audit conclusions and are represented to the extent relevant and warranted in preparing this report. Their full section 16(3) submissions and comments are included in Appendix B.