Improving Bus Services

Buses as mass transit

The government’s Bus Plan sets out 6 objectives to deliver a modern, high-performing, integrated and more sustainable bus network. When these objectives are achieved, buses can play a mass transit role that gets commuters to where they need to be.

The department is also committed to its public performance objective that the state’s bus network is reliable and people-focused. 

Department’s performance measures

The department uses a set of measures to assess whether it is achieving its performance objectives and publicly reports against them. These measures include:

• buses running on time
• bus services delivered
• the number of passengers
• passenger experience.

The department assesses the network’s performance using its timetable data and data supplied by bus network operators. It combines information from individual operators for an overview of network performance. This is to help the department monitor each bus operator’s performance and ensure operators deliver their contracted services.

The Department of Treasury and Finance, in its Resource Management Framework, provides guidance on specifying departmental objectives and their indicators. It stresses the need for objective indicators to identify the impact of output delivery on the community. A focus on reporting contractual performance measures can miss bus passengers' travel experience and what they need from their bus services.

Reflecting passengers' needs 

The way the department uses its data does not give it a complete picture of bus passengers' network experience. So, its decisions about the network may not be based on high quality data and methods.

In its action plan, the department recognises the importance of good quality data to understand how to best optimise the bus network and to have confidence in the network reforms’ impact on passengers. It nominates particular focus areas for improving data:

• passenger numbers
• bus running time
• community demographics.

Having more accurate and detailed data about how bus passengers use the bus network will help the department better understand bus passengers’ needs.

Our analysis 

We examined the department's monitoring and operational data and the performance benchmarks it sets. We also analysed bus network performance and focused on the passenger experience of the bus network. As well as looking at the same elements of performance as the department’s public reporting, we also looked at how easy it is to change from a bus to a train service.

Because our analysis focuses on the passenger experience, our measures and methodology are not always the same as the department’s. We describe these differences when we discuss performance results below.

Measuring punctuality 

The department has clear targets for punctuality for the whole network and for each bus operator. It considers a bus to be punctual if it arrives no more than 4 minutes and 59 seconds late, and departs no more than 59 seconds early, from timing points (which are major bus stops) along each route. The department refers to buses’ early arrival at a timing point as ‘on time running’, so long as the bus does not also depart early.

The department measures bus punctuality through buses' onboard GPS units. When buses pass through a stop, the unit records the time and bus operators upload this data. 

The department monitors punctuality by checking the timing data for selected timing points in each route. The department selects these timing points by considering major destinations and where it is safe and legal for buses to pause to keep to timetable. This is an industry-standard approach to assessing bus operator performance.

For the 2021–25 period, the department’s performance target for punctuality was 86 per cent of metropolitan services running on time and bus operators have exceeded or met this target. But services running on time have decreased from 93 per cent in 2020–21 to 86 per cent in 2024–25.

Measuring reliability

Reliability is when bus operators deliver their contracted services. The department sets clear benchmarks for reliability at both a metropolitan Melbourne and individual operator level and in 2024–25, the benchmark was 99.9 per cent. The department's reporting shows that bus operators met this target.

User expectations 

The department consulted with some communities on pilot projects on what they want from their bus network. These communities identified buses turning up (reliability) and on time (punctuality) as the second highest priority. The highest priority was that buses run frequently.

But the way the department uses data it collects does not give it a complete picture of punctuality and reliability.

For example, data on bus services’ punctuality looks at selected timing points and then combines the information across routes and bus operators to understand network performance. This means that the department is not capturing if punctuality varies between stops on a route or between different routes.

Using their method, the department calculated that 86 per cent of buses were running on time. But when we analysed all bus stops in a route, we found that 70 per cent were on time.

User experience of buses running on time

We analysed timetable data that focused on bus users’ experience of timeliness and cancellation of buses. This means we examined bus arrival and departure times for every stop along the route, not just timing points.

Assessing punctuality data from all stops more accurately reflects passengers’ experience of actual service delivery, rather than using a smaller collection of stops. Measuring punctuality this way does lead to lower rates of punctuality. 

Our analysis shows that buses running on time declined from 2021 to 2025 but it has stabilised over the last 2 years, as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Buses running on time on the metropolitan network in 2021–25

Note: For each year, results do not add up to 100 per cent because buses that arrived very late (more than 20 minutes), or did not arrive, are excluded. The results for 2021 may be affected by changed travel patterns during COVID-19.
Source: VAGO, based on information from the department.

Passenger information

The department's action plan includes actions to improve real time service information for bus passengers. This means improving the bus stop passenger experience by making real time arrival information available in Public Transport Victoria’s journey planning app. At the moment, this tool uses timetable data for arrival information; on some buses, real time information is also available.

Passenger numbers 

Collectively, bus operators carried 114.9 million passengers on metropolitan services in 2024–25. This did not achieve the department's target of 125.3 million.

Although bus operators have carried less passengers than the departments' targets, passenger numbers have nearly doubled from 58.6 million in 2020–21 to 114.3 million in 2024–25. 

Passenger numbers have not returned to the pre-COVID-19 levels. In 2017–18 there were 117.8 million passengers, and 121.8 million in 2018–19.

The department has set a reduced target of 116.6 million for 2025–26.

Modelling passenger count

The department's passenger data and modelling produce inaccurate results.

The department uses myki ticketing data to estimate bus passenger numbers. This model uses a 'boost factor' to account for passengers who do not scan their myki ticket.

To test the accuracy of the department's method for calculating actual passenger numbers, we analysed data from buses fitted with an automated passenger counter (APC). We looked at changes in passenger numbers between 2022 and 2025. We compared APC data to myki data.

We found that when the department applies its boost factor to myki data, it still risks both over and underestimating passenger numbers.

When we looked at an average trip tracked with APC, we found it had 25.7 per cent more passengers than reported by the department using its method. In our analysis, for half of the trips reporting myki data, the number of passengers ranged from 15 per cent lower to 62 per cent higher than typically reported.

Based on data supplied by the department, their modelling approach indicates there are 112 million metropolitan passengers each year. But it may be underestimating this number by up to 30 million passengers on the metropolitan bus network in a single year.

The department's method also means that it cannot get accurate bus passenger numbers by route or understand temporary patterns in bus use.

Customer experience index

The department uses surveys to measure bus passengers' experience of the network. The survey brings together 6 elements of the user experience for an index score. They are:

• travel needs were met
• it was easy to travel
• how travelling made the user feel, including feeling safe
• how likely the user would recommend the bus service to others
• use of information sources to plan travel and keep up to date
• compliance with guidance on being a considerate passenger.

The department's annual target for this index score is 77.5 and in 2024–25 the score was 76.7.

The department also measures the passenger experience for trams and trains. Buses score similarly to trams for passenger experience and slightly lower than metropolitan trains.

Bus and train coordinated services

Many bus passengers use their bus service to connect to train services for work, education or community activities. Passengers can transfer between services smoothly when timetables are coordinated. For example, a bus and rail service is coordinated when both services run every 10 minutes, or the bus runs every 20 minutes while train runs every 10 minutes.

While the department does not publicly report on bus and rail coordination, it does set targets for the proportion of bus or train services that are coordinated. These can vary considerably across train lines.

The department told us that it coordinates bus and train services at the bus route level using their bus and rail coordination guidelines. This means it prioritises particular bus routes for train timetable coordination, including school bus routes.

Timetable coordination

We analysed daily timetable data to understand the current user experience of bus and train timetable coordination. We did this by examining daily timetable data for high priority connections between buses and trains using a sample of train stations.

These connections are prioritised by the department because they fall within the commuter peak for travelling to and from places of work. The sample includes routes from the 4 main bus operators and each of the 6 metropolitan regions.

In June 2025, for this representative sample, travellers connecting between buses and trains would be able to connect within a transfer window of 5–10 minutes for only 73 per cent of bus services. One exception is Laverton station which has a longer transfer window of 7–12 minutes.

We also found that:

• 78 per cent of bus services on a weekday before 3pm could have connected to an inbound (towards the city) train within the transfer window.
• 69 per cent of bus services on a weekday after 3pm could have connected to an outbound (away from the city) train within the transfer window.
• 70 per cent of bus services on a weekend before 3pm could have connected to an inbound train within the transfer window.
• 62 per cent of bus services on a weekend after 3pm could have connected to an outbound train within the transfer window.

For details of our method, including our sampling approach, please see Appendix D.

Bus network reform

The Bus Plan’s first reform objective sets an ambitious goal for Melbourne’s bus network to become a mass transit option from 2031. One of the Bus Plan’s key aims is to 'unscramble' the bus network and provide routes that go where people need them and connect more places and services. 

The department's action plan for bus network reform focuses on key strategic corridors to ensure connections between and to:

• current and future activity centres
• public transport nodes
• employment hubs
• education centres
• commercial and retail centres across the state.

Its action plan describes a modern network with an 800-metre grid structure based on arterial roads. This structure has the potential to form a network of key strategic corridors that carry more people, more frequently and more quickly.

Bus network design 

Communities without nearby access to tram or train services rely heavily on bus services to get them to work, education, community and social activities. When their bus service is poor quality, it limits transport options for young people, the elderly, people with disability or those who cannot afford to run a car.

Melbourne’s current bus network design prioritises easy access to any kind of bus service. This is seen in planning guidelines which say that 95 per cent of households should be no more than 400 metres' street walking distance from an existing or proposed bus stop. 

While this means that nearly all households in Melbourne are close to a bus stop, many of these routes are longer and slower because of the distance they need to travel. And for some communities, suburban development has been faster than the incremental change to bus routes. This can mean that these communities have little or no access to any bus service.

Bus user preferences

When the department consulted with communities as part of bus reform pilot projects, it found that 63 per cent of people will walk up to, or over, 10 minutes (or about 800 metres) to a bus stop if the bus is frequent, fast and reliable. 

North and northeastern metropolitan communities were asked about what is important to them when catching a bus.

This community sentiment aligns with the department's action plan for bus network reform.

Melbourne's bus routes

We analysed where Melbourne's bus routes travelled and the communities they served for the period of June 2025. We looked at how close households are to bus stops (400 and 800 metres) and whether those bus stops provide high quality public transport.

Figure 2 shows how much of the metropolitan area the bus network covers. We found that: 

• 87 per cent of households had a bus service within 400 metres
• only 26 per cent had a high quality bus service within 800 metres.

When taking into account access to trams and trains, we found that:

• 89 per cent of households had a public transport service within 400 metres walking distance
• 37 per cent had a high quality public transport service within 800 metres.

When households do not have access to train or tram services, they rely on bus services to get them where they need to go when they need it.

Figure 2: Bus stops across metropolitan Melbourne

Source: VAGO, based on information from the department.

Service changes

The department told us that, since 2021, it has improved more than 128 local bus networks which have created more than 11,000 extra services each week and increased patronage. The department also told us that its FlexiRide service, an on-demand bus service, is available in growth areas such as Tarneit North and Melton South.

These bus service changes align with the ambition of the Bus Plan to make the network simpler and increase patronage. FlexiRide is useful to those communities who do not yet have access to fixed bus routes.

But incremental changes to local bus networks and FlexiRide services cannot deliver the scale of reform described in the Bus Plan.

Outer metropolitan access

Outer metropolitan areas are more likely to rely on bus services for public transport. This is because tram and rail services have less coverage in these areas. These outer metropolitan areas are also experiencing high population growth and increasing demand for public transport.

We looked at 5 local government areas (LGAs), as examples of these population and transport conditions. Each of these LGAs is on the periphery of the Melbourne metropolitan area and they are the 5 most highly populated LGAs in Melbourne:

• Casey
• Hume
• Melton
• Whittlesea
• Wyndham.

We found that communities in these LGAs had lower access to bus services than the Melbourne average, when using the 400 and 800 metre standards. For each of these areas, there was no other high quality public transport service. Figure 3 shows this in detail.

High population areas

We also looked at highly populated areas of Melbourne to understand their access to public transport. We defined high population as a community of more than 30,000 people.

There are 5 areas in outer metropolitan Melbourne with a population of more than 30,000:

• Rockbank – Mt Cottrell (Melton LGA)
• Mickleham – Yuroke (Hume LGA)
• Wollert (Whittlesea LGA)
• Werribee – West (Wyndham LGA)
• Beaconsfield – Officer (Cardinia LGA).

Households in these areas rely on the bus for public transport as they are not close to either train or tram services.

We excluded Wallan, a high population community on the northern edge of Melbourne’s metropolitan area, because this community also has access to regional public transport services.

Community with very limited access to public transport

The Rockbank – Mt Cottrell community is the most poorly served by the public transport network. Less than 23 per cent of the population has access to a bus service within 400 metres. High quality public transport of any kind (bus, train or tram) is more than 800 metres away from households. 

Figure 4 shows households in these communities and how close they are to bus stops.

Figure 4: Community access to public transport services in Rockbank – Mt Cottrell 

Source: VAGO, based on information from the department.

Communities with limited access to public transport

The Beaconsfield – Officer and Mickleham – Yuroke communities are slightly better served by bus services, as shown in Figure 5. 

This is because about half of the population in each area (49 per cent and 53 per cent respectively) has access to a bus service within 400 metres. But there is very little high quality public transport that is easily accessible.

Figure 5: Community access to public transport services in Beaconsfield–Officer and Mickleham – Yuroke

Source: VAGO, based on information from the department.

Communities with poor access to public transport

The Werribee – West and Wollert communities have some access to public transport, as shown in Figure 6. About half of the population in each community (49 per cent and 59 per cent respectively) has access to a bus service within 400 metres. 

But less than 10 per cent of the population have access to high quality bus services or public transport services (7 per cent and 10 per cent respectively).

Figure 6: Community access to public transport services in Werribee – West and Wollert

Source: VAGO, based on information from the department.

The Bus Plan

Between 2021 and 2023, the department laid the groundwork for the Bus Plan. The first action of the Bus Plan was the department’s Bus Reform Implementation Plan (the action plan). This includes objectives, actions, performance targets and guidelines to inform bus network planning and reform. It also outlines 3 phases for delivering these actions between 2021 and 2030 onwards.

Figure 7 shows these phases and the department's intended focus of each phase.

Completed early work

Since 2023, the department has started work on the 48 actions in the action plan that will deliver the Bus Plan reforms. This work has included:

• reforming bus contracts to deliver better value for money
• introducing a zero emissions bus fleet
• gradual upgrade of real time information displays
• on-road priority for buses to improve performance.

We considered this when assessing the department’s performance in implementing its action plan.

Progress on the action plan

We assessed the department's progress in delivering its action plan. For this audit, 36 of 48 actions are in scope. We excluded actions for school bus reform, the regional bus network and communications.

Figure 8 shows the progress the department is making in delivering these 36 actions.

Figure 8: The department's action plan delivery progress

Source: VAGO.

Action plan’s progress

The department's ‘in progress’ or ‘completed’ actions are not enough to deliver the Bus Plan. This is because the impact of each action is not equal. 

The department still needs to complete several substantial actions, including network design, planning guidance and infrastructure, so it can deliver the objectives of the Bus Plan.

The department's action plan recognises that small scale changes to the bus network are necessary but not enough. The department knows these changes cannot improve the network itself or deliver the service frequency to meet community needs.

Community consultations

In September 2022, the department used the Engage Victoria platform to consult communities in Melbourne's northern and northeastern suburbs about what they needed from bus reform. 

After this initial consultation, the department has not transparently reported on or updated Victorians about the Bus Plan delivery progress.

The Victorian Parliament’s Legislative Council ordered the public release of the Bus Plan documents in March 2024. The department released some documents about the Bus Plan in September 2025. But the government claimed executive privilege over other documents, including the department’s action plan, and these were not released. 

This was another opportunity for the department to explain the lack of implementation progress, but it did not take it up.