Predicting future population

Why this is important

Victoria in Future (VIF) is the official population projection model the government uses to guide planning and infrastructure.

The Planning and Environment Act 1987 and the Victorian Planning Provisions require that planning for land use, infrastructure and service delivery considers government population projections, which the VIF provides. This means all state and local government entities should use VIF as their standard demographic evidence base to ensure planning and investment decisions are consistent and have integrity.

Inaccurate VIF projections can lead to a broad range of issues including misplaced, inadequate or over-scoped infrastructure and services. This could mean that services and essential infrastructure are not available where and when people need them. As such, the reliability of the VIF and how agencies use the projections warrants close examination.

What we plan to examine

We plan to examine how accurate the VIF projections are across time and geographic scales and how departments have used them to inform service and infrastructure planning.

Who we plan to examine

Department of Education

Department of Health

Department of Transport and Planning