Victoria's reliability outlook out to 2030 has improved since 2024. However, indicative forecasts beyond 2030 show widening reliability gaps if Australian and Victorian Government schemes do not deliver their intended generation and storage capacity.
With risks such as forecast gas shortages, uncoordinated power plant maintenance and adverse weather conditions, the state still faces a risk of electricity shortfalls immediately after Yallourn closes.
Victoria will not meet its target for 2 GW of offshore wind energy by 2032.
It will take until at least the end of 2033 to deliver 2 GW of offshore wind due to delays finding a suitable port and opening offshore wind auctions. These delays also place the 2035 and 2040 offshore wind targets at risk.
Battery storage is a key part of the government’s plan to replace coal. SEC is on track to meet its target to deliver 1 GW of battery storage by 2028. Another 350 MW, 4-hour duration battery is also on track to be completed before Yallourn closes.
Victoria is on track to meet its target of 40 per cent of the electricity generated in the state to come from renewable sources by the end of 2025.
The pathway to 65 per cent renewable energy generation by 2030 is less certain. Achieving the target will depend on the CIS delivering all of Victoria's renewable energy and storage allocation, plus additional Victorian Government support.
Reaching the 2030 target also requires on-time investment in transmission infrastructure so enough new projects can connect in time and supply electricity to the grid.
We made 4 recommendations to address our findings. The relevant agencies have accepted all recommendations in full.
Our audit followed 2 lines of inquiry:
To answer these questions, we examined:
Download a PDF copy of Appendix C: Audit scope and method.
Download a PDF copy of Appendix B: Abbreviations, acronyms and glossary.
Download a PDF copy of Appendix A: Submissions and comments.
Departments we examined did not actively assess how savings affected either frontline or back-office services.
Departments’ existing performance measures do not track savings' impacts and do not consistently measure all outputs across all business areas.
Without targeted metrics or specific monitoring, departments cannot show if savings affected service delivery.
Covered in this section:
All departments told us that they delivered their 2023–24 DER savings targets, but only DEECA tracks implementation at the initiative level.
Other departments monitored progress against their overall budgets, which include a mix of savings and other funding decisions.
This means they could not easily show if they delivered the specific initiatives approved in their DER implementation plans.
Covered in this section: