5. Meeting Victoria's electricity needs

Victoria's reliability outlook out to 2030 has improved since 2024. However, indicative forecasts beyond 2030 show widening reliability gaps if Australian and Victorian Government schemes do not deliver their intended generation and storage capacity.

With risks such as forecast gas shortages, uncoordinated power plant maintenance and adverse weather conditions, the state still faces a risk of electricity shortfalls immediately after Yallourn closes.

4. Renewable energy infrastructure

Victoria will not meet its target for 2 GW of offshore wind energy by 2032. 

It will take until at least the end of 2033 to deliver 2 GW of offshore wind due to delays finding a suitable port and opening offshore wind auctions. These delays also place the 2035 and 2040 offshore wind targets at risk.

Battery storage is a key part of the government’s plan to replace coal. SEC is on track to meet its target to deliver 1 GW of battery storage by 2028. Another 350 MW, 4-hour duration battery is also on track to be completed before Yallourn closes.

3. Meeting Victoria's 2025 and 2030 targets

Victoria is on track to meet its target of 40 per cent of the electricity generated in the state to come from renewable sources by the end of 2025.

The pathway to 65 per cent renewable energy generation by 2030 is less certain. Achieving the target will depend on the CIS delivering all of Victoria's renewable energy and storage allocation, plus additional Victorian Government support.

Reaching the 2030 target also requires on-time investment in transmission infrastructure so enough new projects can connect in time and supply electricity to the grid.

1. Our key findings

What we examined

Our audit followed 2 lines of inquiry: 

  1. Is progress towards the government’s renewable energy and storage objectives on track? 
  2. Is the government's plan designed to achieve its renewable energy and storage objectives, and electricity obligations?

To answer these questions, we examined: